In the coming weeks, significantly more people will die in connection with a corona infection than in previous weeks, according to a study.
Model calculations showed that the number of deaths from covid-19 in germany was already allowed to increase to 500 to 800 per week at the beginning of november, said viola priesemann, head of a research group at the max planck institute for dynamics and self-organization in gottingen. The increase may be even more pronounced.
The relatively low number of deaths so far is due to the fact that until the end of september, people under the age of 60 had been infected with the sars-cov-2 virus, the scientists around priesemann explain. Since then, the number of reported infections has also risen among people over 60. With a time lag of about two weeks, this would also lead to an increase in the death rate. Scientists from numerous german research institutions participated in the study.
The team analyzed the increase in reported new infections by age group and determined from the observed mortality in each age group how the number of deaths from covid-19 is evolving. "According to an extensive meta-study, the mortality rate from corona infection increases tenfold every 20 years of life, reaching about 10 percent around the age of 82," it hailed.
"The results of our model calculations agree very well with the observed developments in all age groups," said priesemann. "That’s why our forecasts for the next two weeks could also be confident."Predictions beyond that are difficult.
According to the scientists, the increase in the number of people over 60 infected with corona since the end of september is due to the fact that health authorities can no longer consistently track and isolate the contacts of infected people. "In order to regain control over the incidence of infection, the number of cases must be reduced immediately," write the researchers, according to a statement in the "deutsche arzteblatt," in which the study was published.